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Fooled by Randomness: The Hidden Role of Chance...
25,99 € *
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Taleb, a professional trader and mathematics professor, examines what randomness means in business and in life, and discusses why human beings are so prone to mistake dumb luck for consummate skill. Fooled by Randomness is a standalone book in Nassim Nicholas Taleb´s landmark Incerto series, an investigation of opacity, luck, uncertainty, probability, human error, risk, and decision-making in a world we don´t understand. The other books in the series are The Black Swan, Antifragile, Skin in the Game, and The Bed of Procrustes. Now in a striking new hardcover edition, Fooled by Randomness is the word-of-mouth sensation that will change the way you think about business and the world. Nassim Nicholas Taleb-veteran trader, renowned risk expert, polymathic scholar, erudite raconteur, and New York Times bestselling author of The Black Swan-has written a modern classic that turns on its head what we believe about luck and skill. This book is about luck-or more precisely, about how we perceive and deal with luck in life and business. Set against the backdrop of the most conspicuous forum in which luck is mistaken for skill-the world of trading-Fooled by Randomness provides captivating insight into one of the least understood factors in all our lives. Writing in an entertaining narrative style, the author tackles major intellectual issues related to the underestimation of the influence of happenstance on our lives. The book is populated with an array of characters, some of whom have grasped, in their own way, the significance of chance: the baseball legend Yogi Berra; the philosopher of knowledge Karl Popper; the ancient world´s wisest man, Solon; the modern financier George Soros; and the Greek voyager Odysseus. We also meet the fictional Nero, who seems to understand the role of randomness in his professional life but falls victim to his own superstitious foolishness. However, the most recognizable character of all remains unnamed-the lucky fool who happens to be in the right place at the right time-he embodies the ´´survival of the least fit.´´ Such individuals attract devoted followers who believe in their guru´s insights and methods. But no one can replicate what is obtained by chance. Are we capable of distinguishing the fortunate charlatan from the genuine visionary? Must we always try to uncover nonexistent messages in random events? It may be impossible to guard ourselves against the vagaries of the goddess Fortuna, but after reading Fooled by Randomness we can be a little better prepared. PRAISE FOR FOOLED BY RANDOMNESS: Named by Fortune One of the Smartest Books of All Time A Financial Times Best Business Book of the Year ´´[Fooled by Randomness] is to conventional Wall Street wisdom approximately what Martin Luther´s ninety-five theses were to the Catholic Church.´´ -Malcolm Gladwell, author of Blink ´´The book that rolled down Wall Street like a hand grenade.´´ -Maggie Mahar, author of Bull! A History of the Boom, 1982-1999 ´´Fascinating . . . Taleb will grab you.´´ -Peter L. Bernstein, author of Capital Ideas Evolving ´´Recalls the best of scientist/essayists like Richard Dawkins . . . and Stephen Jay Gould.´´ -Michael Schrage, author of Serious Play: How the World´s Best Companies Simulate to Innovate ´´We need a book like this. . . . Fun to read, refreshingly independent-minded.´´ -Robert J. Shiller, author of Irrational Exuberance ´´Powerful . . . loaded with crackling little insights [and] extreme brilliance.´´ -National Review

Anbieter: buecher.de
Stand: 06.09.2019
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Fooled by Randomness: The Hidden Role of Chance...
9,95 € *
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Fooled by Randomness is a stand-alone book in Nassim Nicholas Taleb’s landmark Incerto series, an investigation of opacity, luck, uncertainty, probability, human error, risk, and decision-making in a world we don’t understand. The other books in the series are The Black Swan, Antifragile, Skin in the Game, and The Bed of Procrustes.Fooled by Randomness is the word-of-mouth sensation that will change the way you think about business and the world. Nassim Nicholas Taleb - veteran trader, renowned risk expert, polymathic scholar, erudite raconteur, and New York Times best-selling author of The Black Swan - has penned a modern classic that turns on its head what we believe about luck and skill.This book is about luck - or more precisely, about how we perceive and deal with luck in life and business. Set against the backdrop of the most conspicuous forum in which luck is mistaken for skill - the world of trading - Fooled by Randomness provides captivating insight into one of the least understood factors in all our lives. Presented in an entertaining narrative style, the author tackles major intellectual issues related to the underestimation of the influence of happenstance on our lives.The book is populated with an array of characters, some of whom have grasped, in their own way, the significance of chance: the baseball legend Yogi Berra; the philosopher of knowledge Karl Popper; the ancient world’s wisest man, Solon; the modern financier George Soros; and the Greek voyager Odysseus. We also meet the fictional Nero, who seems to understand the role of randomness in his professional life but falls victim to his own superstitious foolishness.However, the most recognizable character of all remains unnamed - the lucky fool who happens to be in the right place at the right time - he embodies the ´´s 1. Language: English. Narrator: Joe Ochman. Audio sample: http://samples.audible.de/bk/rand/006497/bk_rand_006497_sample.mp3. Digital audiobook in aax.

Anbieter: Audible
Stand: 26.08.2019
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Fooled by Randomness: The Hidden Role of Chance...
9,95 € *
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This audiobook is about luck, or more precisely, how we perceive and deal with luck in life and business. It is already a landmark work and its title has entered our vocabulary. In its second edition, Fooled by Randomness is now a cornerstone for anyone interested in random outcomes. Set against the backdrop of the most conspicuous forum in which luck is mistaken for skill, the world of trading, this audiobook is a captivating insight into one of the least understood factors of all our lives. In an entertaining narrative style, the author succeeds in tackling three major intellectual issues: the problem of induction, the survivorship biases, and our genetic unfitness to the modern word. Taleb uses stories and anecdotes to illustrate our overestimation of causality and the heuristics that make us view the world as far more explainable than it actually is. The audiobook is populated with an array of characters, some of whom have grasped, in their own way, the significance of chance: Yogi Berra, the baseball legend; Karl Popper, the philosopher of knowledge; Solon, the ancient world´s wisest man; the modern financier George Soros; and the Greek voyager Ulysses. We also meet the fictional Nero, who seems to understand the role of randomness in his professional life, but who also falls victim to his own superstitious foolishness. But the most recognizable character remains unnamed, the lucky fool in the right place at the right time - the embodiment of the ´´Survival of the Least Fit´´. Such individuals attract devoted followers who believe in their guru´s insights and methods. But no one can replicate what is obtained through chance. It may be impossible to guard against the vagaries of the Goddess Fortuna, but after listening to Fooled by Randomness we can be a little better prepared. 1. Language: English. Narrator: Sean Pratt. Audio sample: http://samples.audible.de/bk/gdan/000125/bk_gdan_000125_sample.mp3. Digital audiobook in aax.

Anbieter: Audible
Stand: 26.08.2019
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The Black Swan, Second Edition: The Impact of t...
9,95 € *
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The Black Swan is a stand-alone book in Nassim Nicholas Taleb’s landmark Incerto series, an investigation of opacity, luck, uncertainty, probability, human error, risk, and decision-making in a world we don’t understand. The other books in the series are Fooled by Randomness, Antifragile, Skin in the Game, and The Bed of Procrustes.A black swan is a highly improbable event with three principal characteristics: It is unpredictable; it carries a massive impact; and, after the fact, we concoct an explanation that makes it appear less random, and more predictable, than it was. The astonishing success of Google was a black swan; so was 9/11. For Nassim Nicholas Taleb, black swans underlie almost everything about our world, from the rise of religions to events in our own personal lives.Why do we not acknowledge the phenomenon of black swans until after they occur? Part of the answer, according to Taleb, is that humans are hardwired to learn specifics when they should be focused on generalities. We concentrate on things we already know and time and time again fail to take into consideration what we don’t know. We are, therefore, unable to truly estimate opportunities, too vulnerable to the impulse to simplify, narrate, and categorize, and not open enough to rewarding those who can imagine the ´´impossible”.For years, Taleb has studied how we fool ourselves into thinking we know more than we actually do. We restrict our thinking to the irrelevant and inconsequential, while large events continue to surprise us and shape our world. In this revelatory book, Taleb explains everything we know about what we don’t know, and this second edition features a new philosophical and empirical essay, ´´On Robustness and Fragility”, which offers tools to navigate and exploit a Black Swan world.Elegant, startling, and universal in its applicat 1. Language: English. Narrator: Joe Ochman. Audio sample: http://samples.audible.de/bk/rand/006496/bk_rand_006496_sample.mp3. Digital audiobook in aax.

Anbieter: Audible
Stand: 26.08.2019
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The Black Swan
12,99 € *
ggf. zzgl. Versand

The Black Swan is a standalone book in Nassim Nicholas Taleb´s landmark Incerto series, an investigation of opacity, luck, uncertainty, probability, human error, risk, and decision-making in a world we don´t understand. The other books in the series are Fooled by Randomness, Antifragile, Skin in the Game, and The Bed of Procrustes. A black swan is a highly improbable event with three principal characteristics: It is unpredictable; it carries a massive impact; and, after the fact, we concoct an explanation that makes it appear less random, and more predictable, than it was. The astonishing success of Google was a black swan; so was 9/11. For Nassim Nicholas Taleb, black swans underlie almost everything about our world, from the rise of religions to events in our own personal lives. Why do we not acknowledge the phenomenon of black swans until after they occur? Part of the answer, according to Taleb, is that humans are hardwired to learn specifics when they should be focused on generalities. We concentrate on things we already know and time and time again fail to take into consideration what we don´t know. We are, therefore, unable to truly estimate opportunities, too vulnerable to the impulse to simplify, narrate, and categorize, and not open enough to rewarding those who can imagine the ´´impossible.´´ For years, Taleb has studied how we fool ourselves into thinking we know more than we actually do. We restrict our thinking to the irrelevant and inconsequential, while large events continue to surprise us and shape our world. In this revelatory book, Taleb explains everything we know about what we don´t know, and this second edition features a new philosophical and empirical essay, ´´On Robustness and Fragility,´´ which offers tools to navigate and exploit a Black Swan world. Elegant, startling, and universal in its applications, The Black Swan will change the way you look at the world. Taleb is a vastly entertaining writer, with wit, irreverence, and unusual stories to tell. He has a polymathic command of subjects ranging from cognitive science to business to probability theory. The Black Swan is a landmark book-itself a black swan. Praise for Nassim Nicholas Taleb ´´The most prophetic voice of all.´´-GQ Praise for The Black Swan ´´[A book] that altered modern thinking.´´-The Times (London) ´´A masterpiece.´´-Chris Anderson, editor in chief of Wired, author of The Long Tail ´´Idiosyncratically brilliant.´´-Niall Ferguson, Los Angeles Times ´´The Black Swan changed my view of how the world works.´´-Daniel Kahneman, Nobel laureate ´´[Taleb writes] in a style that owes as much to Stephen Colbert as it does to Michel de Montaigne. . . . We eagerly romp with him through the follies of confirmation bias [and] narrative fallacy.´´-The Wall Street Journal ´´Hugely enjoyable-compelling . . . easy to dip into.´´-Financial Times ´´Engaging . . . The Black Swan has appealing cheek and admirable ambition.´´-The New York Times Book Review

Anbieter: buecher.de
Stand: 06.09.2019
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The Black Swan: Second Edition: The Impact of t...
28,99 € *
ggf. zzgl. Versand

Taleb delivers a groundbreaking look at the role played by the unexpected in life and history, and a fascinating examination of why we know less than we think we do--and what to do about it. The Black Swan is a standalone book in Nassim Nicholas Taleb´s landmark Incerto series, an investigation of opacity, luck, uncertainty, probability, human error, risk, and decision-making in a world we don´t understand. The other books in the series are Fooled by Randomness, Antifragile, Skin in the Game, and The Bed of Procrustes. A black swan is a highly improbable event with three principal characteristics: It is unpredictable; it carries a massive impact; and, after the fact, we concoct an explanation that makes it appear less random, and more predictable, than it was. The astonishing success of Google was a black swan; so was 9/11. For Nassim Nicholas Taleb, black swans underlie almost everything about our world, from the rise of religions to events in our own personal lives. Why do we not acknowledge the phenomenon of black swans until after they occur? Part of the answer, according to Taleb, is that humans are hardwired to learn specifics when they should be focused on generalities. We concentrate on things we already know and time and time again fail to take into consideration what we don´t know. We are, therefore, unable to truly estimate opportunities, too vulnerable to the impulse to simplify, narrate, and categorize, and not open enough to rewarding those who can imagine the ´´impossible.´´ For years, Taleb has studied how we fool ourselves into thinking we know more than we actually do. We restrict our thinking to the irrelevant and inconsequential, while large events continue to surprise us and shape our world. In this revelatory book, Taleb explains everything we know about what we don´t know, and this second edition features a new philosophical and empirical essay, ´´On Robustness and Fragility,´´ which offers tools to navigate and exploit a Black Swan world. Elegant, startling, and universal in its applications, The Black Swan will change the way you look at the world. Taleb is a vastly entertaining writer, with wit, irreverence, and unusual stories to tell. He has a polymathic command of subjects ranging from cognitive science to business to probability theory. The Black Swan is a landmark book-itself a black swan. Praise for Nassim Nicholas Taleb ´´The most prophetic voice of all.´´-GQ Praise for The Black Swan ´´[A book] that altered modern thinking.´´-The Times (London) ´´A masterpiece.´´-Chris Anderson, editor in chief of Wired, author of The Long Tail ´´Idiosyncratically brilliant.´´-Niall Ferguson, Los Angeles Times ´´The Black Swan changed my view of how the world works.´´-Daniel Kahneman, Nobel laureate ´´[Taleb writes] in a style that owes as much to Stephen Colbert as it does to Michel de Montaigne. . . . We eagerly romp with him through the follies of confirmation bias [and] narrative fallacy.´´-The Wall Street Journal ´´Hugely enjoyable-compelling . . . easy to dip into.´´-Financial Times ´´Engaging . . . The Black Swan has appealing cheek and admirable ambition.´´-The New York Times Book Review

Anbieter: buecher.de
Stand: 06.09.2019
Zum Angebot